By the time you read this, a top-level U.S. defence delegation will either be packing their bags for New Delhi or already in meetings with India’s strategic leadership. On paper, this shouldn’t be happening. Not after President Donald Trump slapped two layers of tariffs on Indian goods — 25% on most imports from 1 August, plus another 25% announced on 7 August over India’s purchase of Russian oil. Together, they threatened to take the trade friction to a painful 50%.
Yet, in classic Washington style, the drama on the surface hides a very different current beneath. While the tariff headlines dominate, the Indo–U.S. relationship is quietly moving forward on nearly every other front.
The Defence and Security Front
The upcoming visit of the U.S. defence ministry’s high-level team is not routine — it is a deliberate signal. Washington wants India to know that defence cooperation remains a priority. This is reinforced by the fact that the 21st edition of the joint Indo–U.S. military exercise will go ahead in Alaska this month.
And here’s the geopolitical theatre twist: that’s the very location where Trump is scheduled to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin. On one side, Trump will be shaking hands with Putin; on the other, Indian and American soldiers will be training side by side.
Diplomatic Continuity: The 2+2 Dialogue
Preparations for the annual “2+2” ministerial dialogue — involving the defence and foreign ministers from both countries — are well underway. It’s one of the highest forms of institutional dialogue between the two nations, and it signals long-term commitment, not short-term posturing.
Trade Talks Against the Grain
Despite the tariff tensions, the American trade negotiation team is still coming to India on 25 August. There’s even optimism about concluding a barter-style trade agreement by October. India has drawn its “red lines” clearly — agriculture, livestock, and fisheries are off the table. Washington, at least for now, seems willing to proceed under those terms.
Why the Mixed Signals?
The answer lies in the difference between political theatre and strategic planning.
- Trump’s tariff moves play well to his domestic base, particularly ahead of the midterm elections.
- But U.S. institutions — the Pentagon, State Department, and trade machinery — know the cost of letting 25 years of carefully built Indo–U.S. cooperation unravel.
- There’s also the possibility that Trump is quietly preparing to roll back the extra 25% tariff if the Putin talks produce the right optics.
The Unmukt Take
The “tariff war” may be more performance than policy. The reality is that India and the U.S. are not on the verge of a rupture; they are, in fact, deepening cooperation in defence, diplomacy, and trade — even as they spar in public.
This is a story not of collapsing ties, but of dual narratives: one for the cameras, another for the confidential briefing rooms. And in international politics, it’s often the private handshake that writes the real history.
Unmukt 
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