For decades, American foreign policy has been criticized as short-term and opportunistic. Yet, when it comes to India, Washington displayed rare consistency. From the Clinton years onward, Democratic and Republican administrations alike invested in a careful, bipartisan project: drawing India closer to the United States as a strategic counterweight to China.
That patient diplomacy—built brick by brick over 25 years—now stands on shaky ground. President Donald Trump’s renewed hostility toward India risks unraveling the most significant U.S. strategic realignment since the Cold War.
The Long Arc of U.S.–India Engagement
When President Bill Clinton visited India in 2000, he signaled a dramatic shift from decades of suspicion to cautious partnership. The Bush administration deepened this approach, recognizing that a rising China posed a challenge to the global order and that India, the world’s second-most populous nation, was the natural counterbalance.
George W. Bush took the boldest step: offering India a historic civil nuclear deal. By treating India as a responsible nuclear power rather than an outlier, Washington effectively ended India’s global isolation on the nuclear issue. This was a turning point—expertly managed on the Indian side by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh—and it transformed bilateral relations.
The Obama years took cooperation further. India was positioned as a cornerstone of Washington’s “pivot to Asia.” Trade surged, and the U.S. formally supported India’s aspirations for a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council.
Trump’s first term, despite its unpredictability, gave political heft to the “Quad”—a grouping of the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia—and projected a personal rapport between Trump and Prime Minister Modi. Biden inherited this trajectory and expanded it, pushing for joint manufacturing in defense and technology, from fighter jets to semiconductor chips.
By 2025, India was exporting more smartphones to the U.S. than China—a symbolic victory in supply-chain realignment.
Trump 2.0: A Sudden Reversal
All of this makes Trump’s current shift even more startling. Without warning, his administration has moved India into its most restrictive category of partner countries—lumping it with pariah states such as Syria and Myanmar—while simultaneously extending overtures to Pakistan.
Reports of private meetings with Pakistan’s army chief and alleged business ties between Trump-linked firms and Pakistani institutions have fueled speculation of backroom deals. More dramatically, Trump publicly mocked India’s economy, dismissing it as “dead.”
The irony is striking. India has been the fastest-growing major economy for several years, is now the fourth largest in the world, and is projected to surpass Germany by 2028 to become the third-largest, after only the U.S. and China. It is the world’s second-largest arms importer and a vital hub for digital technology and consumer markets. Far from “dead,” India is central to the 21st-century global economy.
The Risk of Strategic Miscalculation
India is not an easy partner. Its history of colonization, Cold War ties with Moscow, and a deeply independent foreign policy tradition have made it cautious. Prime Minister Modi’s strategy of “multi-alignment” allowed India to keep ties with Washington, Moscow, and even Beijing simultaneously.
Yet, persistent U.S. diplomacy—combined with anxiety over China’s rise—was steadily nudging India into a closer embrace with Washington. That slow but crucial alignment may now be undone.
Trump’s hostility has united India’s political spectrum in outrage. A country that was moving past its ambivalence toward America is once again asking whether Washington can ever be trusted. The result may be a stronger tilt back toward Russia—and perhaps even a thaw with China.
America’s Reliability Question
For years, American diplomats argued that the U.S.–India relationship was destined to be one of the great strategic partnerships of the century: the world’s oldest democracy working hand in hand with its largest. That vision now looks deeply uncertain.
Even if Trump reverses course again—as he often does—the damage may be irreversible. India has seen a glimpse of American unpredictability at its harshest. For a nation obsessed with strategic autonomy, the lesson is clear: never put all your bets on Washington.
Trump may believe he is playing a tactical game with India. But in reality, he risks undoing 25 years of hard-won trust, and with it, America’s most promising counterweight to China. History may remember this as the moment when the U.S. lost India.
“Modi may not have been in the room with Trump and Putin, but India’s silent diplomacy is reshaping global power. How India turned U.S.–Russia tensions into a strategic win.”
In global politics, power isn’t always won on the battlefield or at the negotiating table. Sometimes, the biggest victory comes quietly—without firing a shot. As Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin capture headlines with bold statements and confrontations, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears to be the real beneficiary of their rivalry.
India’s Balancing Act in a Polarized World
For decades, nations have been forced to choose sides between Washington and Moscow. Yet India has carved out its own lane.
With Russia, India shares defense ties, energy trade, and a growing partnership in Arctic exploration.
With the United States, India cooperates strategically in the Indo-Pacific and technology sectors.
With China, India maintains a tense balance, ensuring Beijing cannot ignore New Delhi’s global rise.
This multi-directional diplomacy ensures that while others clash, India gains room to maneuver.
Turning Sanctions into Opportunity
When the U.S. imposed secondary sanctions on Russia, many expected India to retreat. Instead, India increased Russian oil imports by nearly 50%, securing energy at discounted rates. What was meant to isolate Russia created an economic window for India—strengthening its energy security while keeping inflation in check.
The Polar Game: Arctic and Antarctic
Beyond oil, India has positioned itself in a lesser-discussed arena: the poles. With research stations in both the Arctic and Antarctic, India is preparing for future battles over resources and trade routes. Russia may control territory, but lacks the capital to fully develop it. India, with its investments, is quietly securing a seat at tomorrow’s negotiating table.
Modi’s Patience vs Trump’s Impulsiveness
Trump is often portrayed as unpredictable and impulsive. Putin is seen as a power broker who thrives on strength. Modi, in contrast, has built his foreign policy around patience and quiet moves. Instead of loud confrontations, India leverages opportunities—whether in trade, technology, or diplomacy—while keeping its long-term interests secure.
This “silent diplomacy” is what makes India unique. While Trump and Putin dominate news cycles, Modi is scripting gains that will last far longer.
The Unmukt Perspective
At Unmukt, we view this as more than just geopolitical satire. It’s a lesson in 21st-century statecraft. Victories are no longer about who speaks the loudest—they’re about who plays the longest game.
In the triangle of U.S. sanctions, Russian energy needs, and Chinese ambitions, Modi has managed to position India as indispensable. Without firing a single shot, India emerges stronger—proof that sometimes silence is the most powerful move in global diplomacy. this silence, India has carved out its space as a power that others must take into account.
By the time you read this, a top-level U.S. defence delegation will either be packing their bags for New Delhi or already in meetings with India’s strategic leadership. On paper, this shouldn’t be happening. Not after President Donald Trump slapped two layers of tariffs on Indian goods — 25% on most imports from 1 August, plus another 25% announced on 7 August over India’s purchase of Russian oil. Together, they threatened to take the trade friction to a painful 50%.
Yet, in classic Washington style, the drama on the surface hides a very different current beneath. While the tariff headlines dominate, the Indo–U.S. relationship is quietly moving forward on nearly every other front.
The Defence and Security Front
The upcoming visit of the U.S. defence ministry’s high-level team is not routine — it is a deliberate signal. Washington wants India to know that defence cooperation remains a priority. This is reinforced by the fact that the 21st edition of the joint Indo–U.S. military exercise will go ahead in Alaska this month.
And here’s the geopolitical theatre twist: that’s the very location where Trump is scheduled to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin. On one side, Trump will be shaking hands with Putin; on the other, Indian and American soldiers will be training side by side.
Diplomatic Continuity: The 2+2 Dialogue
Preparations for the annual “2+2” ministerial dialogue — involving the defence and foreign ministers from both countries — are well underway. It’s one of the highest forms of institutional dialogue between the two nations, and it signals long-term commitment, not short-term posturing.
Trade Talks Against the Grain
Despite the tariff tensions, the American trade negotiation team is still coming to India on 25 August. There’s even optimism about concluding a barter-style trade agreement by October. India has drawn its “red lines” clearly — agriculture, livestock, and fisheries are off the table. Washington, at least for now, seems willing to proceed under those terms.
Why the Mixed Signals?
The answer lies in the difference between political theatre and strategic planning.
Trump’s tariff moves play well to his domestic base, particularly ahead of the midterm elections.
But U.S. institutions — the Pentagon, State Department, and trade machinery — know the cost of letting 25 years of carefully built Indo–U.S. cooperation unravel.
There’s also the possibility that Trump is quietly preparing to roll back the extra 25% tariff if the Putin talks produce the right optics.
The Unmukt Take
The “tariff war” may be more performance than policy. The reality is that India and the U.S. are not on the verge of a rupture; they are, in fact, deepening cooperation in defence, diplomacy, and trade — even as they spar in public.
This is a story not of collapsing ties, but of dual narratives: one for the cameras, another for the confidential briefing rooms. And in international politics, it’s often the private handshake that writes the real history.
Six months ago, few analysts would have predicted India and China moving even slightly closer in their diplomatic and economic ties. The two Asian giants have spent decades locked in strategic rivalry — from border disputes in Ladakh to competition for influence across Asia. But in 2025, a surprising factor has nudged them toward limited cooperation: Donald Trump’s aggressive U.S. tariffs on both countries.
The Unintended Consequence of Trump’s Tariffs
When President Trump reintroduced steep tariffs on Chinese goods — and extended them to Indian exports — his goal was clear: pressure Beijing over trade practices and punish New Delhi for continuing business with Russia.
However, instead of isolating them, the tariffs have created a shared economic challenge. Both India and China are now dealing with:
Reduced access to the lucrative U.S. market
Risks of economic slowdown
The need to secure alternative investment and trade routes
In geopolitics, shared problems often lead to tactical cooperation, even between rivals.
Key Developments in the India–China Thaw
Resumption of Direct Flights and Visas: India has restarted tourist visas for Chinese nationals and is preparing to resume direct flights through carriers like Air India and IndiGo. This was a long-standing demand from Beijing since the COVID-19 suspension.
Boost in Fertilizer Trade: China has eased restrictions on urea exports to India, vital for India’s agriculture sector. With domestic fertilizer production insufficient to meet demand, this move directly supports Indian farmers and food security.
Reopening of Kailash Mansarovar Yatra: For the first time in five years, Indian pilgrims will be able to travel to Mount Kailash and Lake Mansarovar — a symbolic step in cultural diplomacy.
Diplomatic Backing Against U.S. Tariffs: The Chinese ambassador to India publicly criticized Trump’s tariffs and voiced support for India’s economic sovereignty.
Why India and China Are Finding Common Ground
While political trust remains low, there are clear overlapping interests in 2025:
Economic Growth: Both want to avoid slowdown amid global uncertainty.
Attracting FDI: Global investors are cautious; both economies seek to secure capital inflows.
Energy Security: Access to affordable crude oil is crucial for both.
Balancing U.S. Pressure: Reducing vulnerability to unpredictable U.S. trade policy is a shared goal.
The Limits of Cooperation
This is not a strategic alliance — border tensions remain unresolved and military posturing continues along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). India still views China’s ties with Pakistan with suspicion, especially after Beijing’s support for Islamabad’s military capabilities.
For India, the challenge is maintaining a careful balance: engaging China economically while strengthening security partnerships with the U.S., Japan, and Australia through forums like the Quad.
Looking Ahead: Geopolitics in the Second Half of the Decade
If current trends hold, 2025 could mark the start of a functional but fragile India–China economic partnership, born out of necessity rather than goodwill. Whether this tactical realignment lasts will depend on:
U.S. trade policy in the coming year
Developments on the India–China border
Global commodity prices and energy security concerns
One thing is clear: in global politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies — only permanent interests.
In a recent statement, former U.S. President Donald Trump described India as a “dead economy.” Shockingly, Indian political leader Rahul Gandhi echoed this sentiment, using it to attack the current government. What both these men fail to grasp — or deliberately ignore — is the reality of India’s economic and geopolitical strength.
Let’s start with the facts:
🇮🇳 India’s GDP growth in FY 2024-25: 7%
🇺🇸 U.S. GDP growth in H1 2025: 1.25%
🇷🇺 Russia’s GDP growth in 2024: -4.1%
India is, by far, the fastest-growing major economy in the world — driven by manufacturing, services, exports, infrastructure, and a digitally empowered population.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is barely growing, and Russia is shrinking. So who is the “dead economy” here?
The Hypocrisy of Trump
Donald Trump calls China America’s biggest threat, yet his policies end up helping China. How?
He imposes tariffs on Apple and other U.S. multinational products manufactured in India — a democratic ally. These punitive actions discourage American companies from diversifying away from China.
Instead of supporting India as a reliable partner, Trump treats it as a threat. This isn’t strategy — this is short-sighted populism that benefits Beijing, not Washington.
Rahul Gandhi’s Echo Chamber Politics
What’s worse than Trump’s ignorance? An Indian leader endorsing it.
Rahul Gandhi, who constantly speaks of “saving democracy,” found himself aligning with a man known for undermining democratic values — simply because he saw an opportunity to score political points.
When a national leader amplifies a foreign voice that demeans India’s rise, it’s not dissent — it’s disgrace.
India needs an opposition that holds the government accountable while standing for the nation, not one that joins hands with foreign critics just to attack political rivals.
India Is Not the Problem. India Is the Solution.
India is not an expansionist power. It doesn’t threaten global stability — it strengthens it. As the world faces rising authoritarianism and economic stagnation, India offers something rare:
A democratic system that works
A young population ready to innovate and build
A geopolitical balance that offers stability to both the East and the West
A thriving market that welcomes global investment and fair competition
If anything, a strong and self-confident India solves problems for the West — by offering a counterweight to China, a partner in tech and defence, and a responsible voice in global affairs.
India has many challenges. But calling it a “dead economy” is not just inaccurate — it’s insulting. And when Indian leaders echo these falsehoods, they undermine the very nation they claim to serve.
At Unmukt, we believe in Dharma-based politics — rooted in truth, strength, and national pride. India doesn’t need validation from foreign leaders. But it does need its own citizens, especially its leaders, to stand with her — not against her.
In the age of performative patriotism and economic brinkmanship, Donald Trump’s favorite rallying cry—“Make America Great Again”—may need a reboot: “Make America Fool Again.” At the heart of this irony lies a simple but devastating reality—tariffs. While marketed as weapons of economic warfare against foreign “cheaters,” these tariffs have become boomerangs, hitting American consumers harder than anyone else.
The Illusion of Economic Toughness
Trump’s tariff-heavy strategy is pitched as bold nationalism: taxing foreign imports to promote American-made goods and force foreign governments to yield to U.S. demands. On paper, it sounds tough. In practice, it’s economically self-defeating in a nation where most consumer goods—from iPhones to bananas—are sourced globally.
The U.S. consumer economy is import-dependent by design. Over 70% of retail goods involve foreign components or are directly imported. In this environment, tariffs function not as pressure on foreign manufacturers—but as an invisible tax on American families.
Who Really Pays?
Let’s cut through the rhetoric: Americans pay these tariffs. Corporations simply pass the added costs to the customer. In 2025 alone, U.S. households are expected to pay $1,270 to $2,400 more per year, solely due to tariff-related inflation. Prices for groceries, clothing, furniture, electronics, and cars have jumped—without corresponding wage increases.
Even basic foods are not spared. Bananas, coffee, and wine—items not grown at scale in the U.S.—have no domestic alternative. The tariff on them isn’t protective; it’s punitive to consumers.
Case Study: Autos, Goods, and Stock Shocks
Tariffs on imported autos have driven vehicle prices up by 11%. At the same time, American car manufacturers suffer too—many rely on imported parts. The result? No winners.
Consumer goods giants like Procter & Gamble and Nestlé have announced price hikes across product lines. Even the stock market responds negatively, with dips in shares of consumer-oriented companies whenever new tariffs are announced.
A Strategy Without Substitutes
While Trump’s team insists tariffs will push the U.S. to “de-risk” from China, the reality is that alternatives (like Vietnam or Mexico) often rely on Chinese supply chains themselves. Meanwhile, U.S. manufacturing lacks the scale, workforce, or cost advantage to replace imports meaningfully. The result is disruption without a solution.
Nationalism at Whose Cost?
This is where the slogan flips: “America First” has become America Pays First. These tariffs act as regressive taxes, hurting middle- and lower-income Americans most. They dampen consumer spending, slow economic growth, and hollow out household budgets—all under the banner of economic patriotism.
Trump presents himself as the dealmaker, the protector of American interests. But in the arena of global trade, he’s wielding a sledgehammer where surgical tools are needed.
As political theater, tariffs may look decisive. But behind the scenes, they erode the very fabric of the U.S. consumer economy. What began as a campaign promise to restore greatness has, in effect, triggered the largest stealth tax hike on American households in three decades.
The irony is stark. In trying to punish others, America punishes itself.
“They expected India to bow. Instead, India built a backbone.”
In an age where many nations retreat under U.S. pressure, India stood tall. When Donald Trump returned to the White House in 2025 and announced sweeping 25% tariffs on Indian exports, many global observers braced for panic in New Delhi.
But that panic never came.
Instead, they saw a familiar face—Narendra Modi, calm, calculated, and completely unshaken.
No Panic. No Compromise. No Deal Under Duress.
The Modi government could have taken the easy route: Make a few trade concessions, appease Trump’s ego, beg for tariff exemptions—and spin it as diplomacy.
But this time, India chose something far more powerful: Dignity.
Despite looming tariffs, there was:
No sudden outreach from Indian envoys.
No last-minute offers on agriculture, dairy, or digital trade.
No weakening of India’s strategic relationship with Russia, which lies at the center of this trade conflict.
Instead, India waited. Watched. And sent a clear message to Washington:
We don’t trade our sovereignty—not for discounts, not for praise, not for fear.
Modi in Parliament: A Defining Moment
Just day before yesterday, in a charged Parliament session, PM Modi delivered a masterstroke without raising his voice:
“No foreign leader has ever asked me to stop any internal operation in India.”
This one line, subtle but piercing, was a direct counter to Trump’s old claims that he “mediated” between India and Pakistan—a lie that had embarrassed Indian diplomacy in the past.
By affirming that no leader has dared question India’s internal affairs, Modi wasn’t just defending Kashmir or Manipur or economic autonomy—he was drawing a red line for the world.
A line that says: This is New India. Strong, sovereign, and unafraid.
The India of 2025 Is Not the India of 1991
In the past, India bent.
In the ’90s, India opened markets under IMF pressure.
In the 2000s, India hesitated on nuclear autonomy until George Bush stepped in.
Even during the first Trump term, India showed restraint, trying to “keep the relationship warm.”
But today, the tone has changed.
Modi understands that India’s market of 1.4 billion, its tech and manufacturing potential, and its civilizational strength can’t be treated like a pawn in someone else’s game.
Why Modi’s Boldness Matters
Let’s be clear: Trump’s tariffs are real. They will hurt sectors like textiles, jewelry, and some pharma exports. But short-term pain is sometimes necessary for long-term independence.
Because if India caved now, it would set a dangerous precedent:
That Washington can dictate Indian trade partners.
That a tariff threat can reverse our Russia strategy.
That India must “ask permission” before doing business with the world.
But thanks to Modi, that precedent will never be set.
What the World Needs to Learn from India
China never compromises its red lines. Iran survives with zero Western sympathy. Even tiny Cuba resists American bullying.
So why should India, a rising global power, act like a junior partner?
By refusing to blink, Modi has elevated India’s position globally—from “strategic ally” to sovereign equal.
The U.S. now knows:
India won’t trade policy for praise.
It won’t choose between friends because someone shouted louder.
And it won’t let elections in Washington decide its trade map.
You can debate Modi’s domestic record. You can critique his style. But on the global stage, one fact is undeniable:
He is the first Indian Prime Minister who doesn’t flinch , not before China, not before Pakistan, and now, not even before America.
As Trump throws tariffs like tantrums, India responds not with fear but with strategic silence backed by steel nerves.
In the turbulent waters of the Indo-Pacific, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)—uniting India, United States, Japan, and Australia—stands as a beacon of strategic alignment. Revived in 2017 to promote a “free, open, and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” the Quad’s unspoken mission is to counter China’s maritime ambitions and regional dominance. For India, a rising power grappling with China’s border provocations and Pakistan’s terrorism, the Quad promises enhanced security, economic growth, and global influence. Yet, skepticism persists: Is India a linchpin in a transformative partnership, or merely a pawn in a US-led strategy to contain China? As the recent India-Pakistan escalation (May 2025) underscores the Quad’s limitations, this article explores its true value for India, India’s indispensability to the group, and whether New Delhi could achieve its ambitions alone.
The Quad’s Strategic Lifeline for India
India’s integration into the Quad, cemented after China’s assertive moves (e.g., 2017 Doklam standoff, 2020 Galwan clash), aligns with its goal of countering Beijing’s influence while advancing broader interests. Far from being a passive partner, India leverages the Quad to amplify its strategic, economic, and diplomatic clout.
1. Fortifying Against China The Quad bolsters India’s capacity to counter China’s “String of Pearls” network—ports like Gwadar (Pakistan) and Hambantota (Sri Lanka)—and its naval expansion in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The Malabar naval exercises, involving all Quad members, enhance India’s interoperability with world-class navies, securing sea lanes critical for 90% of its trade by volume. Bilateral agreements, such as COMCASA and BECA with the US, provide advanced technologies (e.g., P-8I aircraft, geospatial intelligence), strengthening India’s maritime and border defenses. The Quad’s strategic pressure on China indirectly limits Beijing’s support for Pakistan, as seen in its restrained response during the India-Pakistan escalation, where reported missile supplies to Pakistan were not escalated further.
2. Economic and Technological Leap The Quad’s Blue Dot Network offers sustainable infrastructure alternatives to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), aligning with India’s Act East policy to deepen ties with ASEAN. Initiatives in supply chain resilience—focusing on semiconductors and critical minerals—reduce India’s reliance on Chinese imports, fueling Make in India. Investments from Quad partners, such as Japan’s $35 billion in India’s Northeast and Australia’s critical minerals cooperation, drive economic growth, cementing India’s status as the world’s 4th largest economy (2025). Collaboration in emerging technologies (AI, 5G, cybersecurity, space) positions India to compete with China’s technological edge, critical for both economic and defense advancements.
3. Diplomatic Ascendancy The Quad elevates India as a leading Indo-Pacific power, amplifying its voice in global forums like the UN and G20. During the Pahalgam terror attack (April 2025) and India’s retaliatory Operation Sindoor, Quad members condemned terrorism without criticizing India’s strikes, unlike China and Turkey, reflecting India’s diplomatic clout. The Quad’s non-binding structure preserves India’s strategic autonomy, allowing unilateral actions (e.g., against Pakistan) while benefiting from collective support. By countering the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and China’s regional influence, the Quad enhances India’s leverage in South Asia and beyond.
4. Leadership in Non-Traditional Security The Quad’s focus on climate change (renewable energy), health security (vaccine diplomacy), and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) enhances India’s soft power. Building on the 2004 Tsunami Core Group, the Quad strengthens India’s role as a regional first responder. Its Women, Peace, and Security agenda aligns with India’s gender-inclusive peacekeeping efforts, bolstering its global image as a responsible power.
The India-Pakistan Escalation: Testing the Quad’s Limits
The Pahalgam terror attack (April 22, 2025) and India’s Operation Sindoor (May 7, 2025), targeting terror camps in Pakistan and PoK, highlighted the Quad’s constrained role in bilateral disputes. India’s precision strikes, executed with indigenous systems (Akash, S-400) and bilateral intelligence (e.g., US-derived), showcased its self-reliance. Quad members condemned the attack but urged restraint, offering no direct support, prompting X users to label the Quad “ineffective” or a “US ploy” that fails India in South Asian crises.
Yet, the Quad’s indirect contributions were significant. Its diplomatic weight ensured global focus on condemning terrorism, not India’s response, with Quad partners avoiding the critical tone of China and Turkey. The group’s strategic pressure on China likely limited Beijing’s escalation of support for Pakistan (e.g., beyond reported missile supplies), preserving regional stability. While the Quad’s China-centric, maritime focus doesn’t address Pakistan directly, its role in countering the China-Pakistan axis supports India’s broader security calculus.
Can India Stand Alone?
India’s skeptics argue it doesn’t need the Quad. With the world’s 4th largest defense budget (~$80 billion), a modernizing navy (INS Vikrant, nuclear submarines), and nuclear capabilities, India executed Operation Sindoor independently. Its economy drives self-reliance (Atmanirbhar Bharat), attracting investments from non-Quad nations (e.g., UAE, Singapore). Diplomatically, India’s non-alignment and ties with Russia, ASEAN, and the Global South ensure global influence, as seen in widespread condemnation of the Pahalgam attack. India counters China unilaterally—banning apps, restricting investments, and fortifying the LAC—while leading in climate (International Solar Alliance) and HADR.
However, going solo has limits. China’s $300 billion defense budget, largest navy, and economic dominance outmatch India’s resources. Developing advanced tech (e.g., 5G, AI) and infrastructure independently is cost-intensive, and facing China’s global influence (e.g., UNSC vetoes) alone risks isolation. The Quad’s collective strength—US superpower status, Japan’s tech leadership, Australia’s Pacific reach—reduces India’s burden, accelerates progress, and counters the China-Pakistan axis more effectively. Without the Quad, India could face a bolder Beijing, potentially escalating support for Pakistan, as hinted in May 2025.
Is India Being Used Against China?
The notion that the Quad is a US-orchestrated effort to leverage India against China resonates in public discourse. X users describe India as a “frontline state” in a US-led “anti-China axis,” noting that the US, Japan, and Australia rely on India’s IOR dominance and rivalry with China (e.g., LAC tensions) to counter Beijing’s BRI and naval expansion. India’s strategic location and military weight make it a natural partner, but critics argue it bears disproportionate risks—provoking China’s ire while Quad partners gain strategic benefits with less exposure.
This view oversimplifies India’s role. New Delhi actively shapes the Quad, emphasizing non-traditional security (climate, health) to avoid a militarized anti-China stance. India’s non-aligned stance and ASEAN ties ensure the Quad isn’t a Western bloc, broadening its appeal. The tangible benefits—tech transfers, investments, diplomatic leverage—align with India’s goals, proving mutual dependence. The Quad’s neutrality in the India-Pakistan escalation fueled frustration, with X posts questioning its reciprocity, but India’s strategic autonomy ensures it’s no mere tool, extracting value while maintaining independence.
A Quad Without India: Viable or Hollow?
Could the Quad survive without India? Technically, yes—it existed briefly in 2007 with limited Indian commitment but collapsed under Chinese pressure. Today, India’s IOR presence, naval power, and democratic weight are irreplaceable. Without India:
• IOR Influence Wanes: China’s BRI ports and Djibouti base face less opposition, as Japan and Australia focus on the Pacific.
• Maritime Strength Fades: Malabar exercises lose relevance, and sea lane security falters.
• Diplomatic Credibility Suffers: The Quad risks becoming a US-led alliance, alienating ASEAN and the Global South.
• Economic and Tech Gaps: India’s market and IT sector drive supply chain and tech initiatives; its absence slows progress.
A US-Japan-Australia triad could pivot to AUKUS or Pacific alliances, but these lack India’s regional heft. X users emphasize India’s indispensable role, though some see a Pacific-focused alternative. Without India, the Quad would be a diminished, Pacific-centric shell, unable to counter China’s Indo-Pacific ambitions effectively.
Conclusion: A Strategic Symbiosis
The Quad is a strategic lifeline for India, amplifying its ability to counter China, secure maritime routes, modernize its economy, and lead globally, while preserving autonomy. Its limitations in bilateral conflicts like the India-Pakistan escalation underscore India’s need for self-reliance, but its indirect benefits—diplomatic cover, pressure on China—prove its worth. India’s robust capabilities enable independent action, but the Quad’s collective strength addresses challenges (China’s superiority, resource constraints) that New Delhi cannot fully overcome alone.
Is the Quad a US gambit to use India against China? Partially, but India’s agency transforms it into a symbiotic partnership. By shaping the Quad’s inclusive agenda, India maximizes benefits while mitigating risks. The Quad’s viability hinges on India’s participation; without it, the group loses strategic and diplomatic weight. For India, the Quad is a pragmatic multiplier, not a necessity, enabling it to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape with unmatched finesse.
Operation Sindoor, executed on May 7–8, 2025, was not just a military success—it was an economic catalyst. With India’s air defense systems delivering flawless performance, the operation is expected to generate domestic and export revenues of up to ₹74,460 crore ($8.9 billion) over the next five years.
Domestic Defense Renaissance
India’s performance has triggered rapid procurement momentum:
QRSAM: A ₹30,000 crore Army order is expected after its precision during the drone assault.
Akash: Expansion to seven regiments with an added ₹12,240 crore spend.
VSHORADS: Fast-tracked production of 500 launchers and 3,000 missiles worth ₹5,500 crore.
Akashteer and BMD: Integration and automation systems receive increased funding.
Indigenous development not only cuts reliance on imports but also delivers massive savings. For instance, SEOS targeting systems cost ₹2 crore domestically versus ₹12 crore from abroad, saving over ₹1,500 crore across future procurement.
Export Windfall: Turning Trust into Trade
With Chinese systems faltering in Pakistan, global eyes are turning to India. Nations such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and Kenya are likely buyers of Akash, QRSAM, and VSHORADS. SIDM and DRDO anticipate:
Akash Exports: ₹6,000–₹10,000 crore from 4–5 countries.
QRSAM/VSHORADS Deals: ₹1,500–₹3,500 crore expected in the next 3 years.
Chinese Market Disruption: India may capture 8–12% of China’s export losses, adding ₹750–₹1,500 crore.
Indirect Gains and R&D Acceleration
Operation Sindoor also boosts:
DRDO’s R&D Funding: Project Kusha and BMD Phase-II development gain momentum.
Global Trust: Western and Asian defense partnerships deepen, with potential co-development deals and tech-sharing initiatives.
Challenges Ahead
India must scale production through Bharat Electronics, BDL, and private players to meet surging demand. Competitive pricing and joint-venture diplomacy will be key to displacing Chinese systems in global markets.
Conclusion
Operation Sindoor has done more than secure Indian skies—it has unlocked an economic boom. With trust in India’s defense systems soaring, this moment could mark the transition from “Make in India” to “Export from India” in global defense markets.
In a recent statement, India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh emphasized the essence of “Brand India” in the context of the nation’s burgeoning defence industry: “If an Indian company makes a promise, it will be fulfilled. If a product is designed to perform within a certain range or at a specific temperature, it will do so without exception. There should be no compromise on quality.” This bold assertion, made at the National Quality Conclave in Delhi, underscores India’s ambition to position itself as a trusted global supplier of defence products, particularly ammunition. The slogan “Don’t go for doubt, go for India” encapsulates this vision, aiming to instill confidence in international buyers. However, the statement also carries a subtle geopolitical undertone, seemingly promoting Indian ammunition as superior while positioning it as a counter to competitors like China and even Pakistan. This article explores India’s push for quality assurance in its ammunition industry, its strategic positioning against regional rivals, and the challenges and opportunities in becoming a trusted global supplier.
The Rise of India’s Ammunition Industry
India’s defence sector has undergone a significant transformation in recent years, driven by the government’s “Atmanirbhar Bharat” (Self-reliant India) initiative. Historically one of the world’s largest arms importers, India is now focusing on indigenous production to reduce dependency on foreign suppliers. The ammunition sector is a key pillar of this strategy. According to a 2024 report, India aims to halt ammunition imports by 2025-26, with local sources already supplying nearly 150 of the 175 ammunition types used by the Indian Army. This shift is supported by substantial investments, with 27.67% of the defence budget allocated to modernizing and expanding ammunition production facilities.
Private players like Adani Defence and Aerospace and SMPP, alongside state-owned entities like Munitions India, are scaling up production of critical ammunition, such as 155 mm artillery shells, which are significantly cheaper than their Western counterparts ($300-$400 per unit compared to $3,000 for European equivalents). Additionally, advancements like the 155 mm smart ammunition demonstrate India’s commitment to technological innovation. These developments not only bolster national security but also position India to capture a share of the global ammunition market, projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.5% through 2033.
Quality Assurance: The Cornerstone of Brand India
The Defence Minister’s emphasis on uncompromising quality reflects a strategic effort to build “Brand India” as a symbol of reliability. Past challenges, such as defective ammunition incidents reported in 2010 and 2016, highlighted quality control issues within the Ordnance Factory Board (OFB). These incidents, including a 2016 explosion that killed 19 soldiers, underscored the need for robust quality assurance mechanisms. The government’s response has been to streamline the OFB into seven Public Sector Defense Undertakings and foster private-sector participation to enhance efficiency and accountability.
Today, initiatives like the e-module launched by the Odisha Police in August 2024 for ammunition inventory management signal a move toward digitalization and precision in quality control. Companies are also adopting international standards, with platforms like India Index verifying suppliers for compliance, financial stability, and transparency to assure global buyers of consistent quality. Rajnath Singh’s assertion that Indian products will meet promised specifications—whether range, temperature resilience, or lethality—aims to erase doubts about reliability, positioning India as a dependable alternative to traditional suppliers like Russia and emerging competitors like China.
Strategic Positioning Against Pakistan and China
The Defence Minister’s remarks carry a geopolitical subtext, subtly promoting Indian ammunition as superior in the context of regional rivalries with Pakistan and China. India’s defence strategy is shaped by the dual threat posed by these nuclear-armed neighbors, with past conflicts and ongoing tensions driving modernization efforts. The Indian Army’s push to stockpile ammunition for a 15-day intense war, up from a previous 10-day reserve, reflects preparations for a potential two-front conflict.
Against Pakistan, India’s ammunition capabilities are implicitly showcased through its ability to produce cost-effective, high-quality munitions. For instance, India’s 155 mm artillery shells are not only cheaper but also tailored to meet modern warfare demands, unlike Pakistan’s reliance on Chinese imports, which account for 81% of its arms imports. The 2022 accidental misfire of a BrahMos missile into Pakistani territory, while embarrassing, highlighted India’s advanced missile capabilities, even if inadvertently.
China, a major arms exporter with 5.9% of the global market, poses a more complex challenge. Chinese ammunition and equipment, often sold at below-cost prices to countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, leverage Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative for political influence. However, international buyers remain wary of Chinese products due to concerns about quality and political strings attached. India is capitalizing on this hesitation by offering reliable, competitively priced alternatives. For example, India’s $375 million deal to supply BrahMos missiles to the Philippines demonstrates its ability to secure high-value contracts in China’s backyard.
By emphasizing quality assurance, India is not only countering China’s market dominance but also positioning its ammunition as a strategic tool to strengthen ties with nations wary of Chinese influence. The slogan “Don’t go for doubt, go for India” subtly contrasts India’s reliability with perceived uncertainties surrounding Chinese products, appealing to international buyers seeking dependable suppliers.
Challenges in Becoming a Trusted Global Supplier
Despite its progress, India faces significant hurdles in establishing itself as a trusted global supplier. First, its defence export sector remains modest, accounting for only 0.2% of the global arms market as of 2015-19. While exports reached $2.5 billion in FY 2023-24, India dropped out of the top 25 arms exporters in FY 2022-23, indicating challenges in sustaining momentum. Key markets like Myanmar and Sri Lanka also procure from China, creating stiff competition.
Quality assurance remains a work in progress. Incidents like the 2020-2023 crashes of Advanced Light Helicopters (ALHs) and the rejection of the naval version of the LCA Tejas by the Indian Navy raise concerns about reliability among potential buyers. Additionally, India’s private sector, while growing, is hampered by bureaucratic ties to public-sector firms, which can stifle innovation and efficiency.
Financing is another bottleneck. Unlike China, France, or Turkey, which offer credit guarantees to buyers, Indian banks are reluctant to finance arms exports to countries with high credit or political risks. The government is addressing this through the Export-Import Bank (EXIM), which is expanding low-cost, long-term loans to attract buyers. However, scaling this initiative to compete with global players requires significant resources and diplomatic outreach.
Finally, India’s diversification of arms imports—from Russia to Western suppliers like France and the US—has created a trust deficit with some partners, potentially limiting technology transfers critical for indigenization. Balancing strategic autonomy with the need for advanced technology remains a delicate task.
Opportunities and the Path Forward
India’s ammunition industry is poised for growth, driven by increasing defence budgets, technological advancements, and a global demand for cost-effective solutions. The government’s focus on indigenization, with 75% of the capital procurement budget earmarked for domestic industries in FY 2023-24, is fostering innovation. Major platforms like the Pinaka rocket launcher, BrahMos missile, and Akash SAM are gaining traction in markets like Armenia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.
To realize the “Don’t go for doubt, go for India” vision, India must prioritize several strategies:
Strengthen Quality Assurance: Invest in advanced testing facilities, international certifications, and digital inventory management to ensure consistent quality. Collaborations with NATO countries, as seen with Reliance Defence, can enhance credibility.
Expand Financing Options: Scale up EXIM’s loan portfolio and explore government-backed credit guarantees to compete with China and Western suppliers.
Target Emerging Markets: Focus on countries in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, where China’s influence is growing but quality concerns persist. Diplomatic efforts, as suggested by the Stimson Center, can help identify trusted buyers.
Leverage Strategic Partnerships: Deepen ties with Western allies like the US and France for technology transfers while maintaining relations with Russia to ensure spare parts for existing systems.
Promote Brand India Globally: Use platforms like the National Quality Conclave to showcase success stories, such as the BrahMos deal, and counter negative perceptions from past incidents.
Conclusion
India’s ambition to become a trusted global supplier of ammunition is rooted in its commitment to quality assurance and the “Brand India” philosophy. By emphasizing reliability, as articulated by Rajnath Singh, India is positioning itself as a counterweight to China’s market dominance and a strategic partner to nations seeking dependable defence solutions. While challenges like quality control, financing, and competition persist, India’s cost-effective production, technological advancements, and diplomatic outreach offer significant opportunities. The slogan “Don’t go for doubt, go for India” is more than a marketing pitch—it’s a call to action for India to deliver on its promises and reshape the global defence landscape. As the nation continues to modernize its ammunition industry, it is not only preparing to defend its borders but also aiming to win the trust of international buyers, one reliable product at a time.
Unmukt 